Ozone layer projections – advanced measurements and modelling

Text by Yuri M. Timofeev, Georgii Nerobelov, SPBU, St. Petersburg, Russia

In December 2020, the St.Petersburg State University (SPBU, St. Petersburg, Russia) was announced among the Russian Universities awarded the MegaGrant from the Government of the Russian Federation. The financial support was granted for a three-year period (2021-2023) for research to be conducted under the guidance of leading international and national scientists in Russian universities and research organizations. The group of Russian scientists led by Dr. Eugene Rozanov will realize tasks of the MegaGrant/ project entitled “Projection of the ozone layer state using modelling and measurements of the atmospheric composition”. The main goal is on finding solutions for scientific and educational problems which are related with to medium (up to 1 month) and long (up to 200 years) term prediction of the ozone layer evolution caused by natural and anthropogenic factors, climate and space weather changes. The key objectives are the following: (i) to conduct and analyse ground-based and satellite measurements of ozone, ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and the state of the atmosphere; (ii) to assess the behavior of the past and the projection of the future ozone layer using state-of-the-art photochemistry and climate scale models taking into account different forcings including variabilities of the greenhouse gases (GHG) and ODS; (iii) to develop new advanced atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere modelling system and its application to study space weather influence on the ozone layer variability; and (iv) to analyse the medium term variability of the ozone layer driven by atmospheric dynamics and space weather-related disturbances.

Dr. Eugene Rozanov is the principal investigator and the leading scientist of the project; he is the senior scientist and the group leader at the Physical-Meteorological Observatory Davos/ World Radiation Center and the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (Switzerland). Prof., Dr. Sci. Yuri Timofeev is the project manager and the deputy leading scientist; he is the Professor at the Atmospheric Physics Faculty, SPBU. The newly created international team will include well-established researchers as well as graduate and undergraduate students in the Atmospheric Sciences disciplines. Within the frameworks of the MegaGrant, and further research investigations, the new scientific laboratory “Research of the ozone layer and the upper atmosphere” will be established at SPBU. Selected tasks of the project are well-linked to the large-scale research questions of the PEEX Science Plan and to be realized in close collaboration with the PEEX (Pan-Eurasian EXperiment) Programme.

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