Impact of climate change on the water balance of the Ferghana Valley

Summary of PhD thesis: Impact of climate change on the contribution of second order tributaries to the water balance of the Ferghana Valley. 2016.

by Dr. Iuliia Radchenko, contact: yulia.rad(a)gmail.com

Department of Landscape, Water and Biogeochemical Cycles, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Germany

The Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) is a highly-populated and semi-arid region, where is a high demand for the agricultural sector. Therefore, water is crucial for the livelihood here. The river runoff, which comes from the Tien-Shan and Pamir-Alay mountain ranges, contribute to the main river in the valley – the Syrdarya River. The Syrdarya River is formed by the confluence of the two large rivers in the study area – the Naryn and Karadarya rivers. Besides, many small upper river catchments contribute to the water balance in the Ferghana Valley. This study aims at estimating the relative contribution of small upper river catchments vs. the two large rivers to the Syrdarya River and evaluating climate change impact on freshwater availability from the 18 small river catchments in the future period (2071-2100) in the Ferghana Valley. Hydrological modelling is an important tool in investigating and understanding the water balance under current and future climatic conditions. The conceptual lumped hydrological HBV-light model and dynamically downscaled regional climate model REMO along with A1B emission scenario were used in this study to fulfil the main goals. Generally, the results show a decrease of the river runoff by ~10% and a seasonal shift of high flow to the earlier month in the majority of the investigated river catchments.

Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Lutz Breuer and Prof. Dr. Hans-Georg Frede, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Germany.

Related research articles:

Climate change impacts on runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia).
Radchenko, I, Dernedde,Y, Mannig, B, Frede, HG, and Breuer, L., Water Resources 44 (5), 707-730, doi:10.1134/S0097807817050098

Simulating Water Resource Availability under Data Scarcity—A Case Study for the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia).
Radchenko, I, Breuer, L., Forkutsa, I., and Frede, HG., Water 6 (11), 3270-3299, doi:10.3390/w6113270

Photograph: (right) Dr. Iuliia Radchenko. (left) Cover from the PhD thesis Impact of climate change on the contribution of second order tributaries to the water balance of the Ferghana Valley (available online).

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